Phase 2 · Jul–Aug 2026
Delay prediction on the IST dataset
The second stage built on the IST delay dataset: a delay prediction model, and the concrete findings learned along the way. The roadmap and first results are below.
Delay prediction model
Predict the chance a flight leaves 15+ min late — from departure hour, airline, route, weather and the aircraft's previous leg. Trained on May–June, tested blind on July: lookup baseline 0.711, model 0.742 AUC, with 3.44x the delay rate in the riskiest 10%. The difference comes from the aircraft itself — 56.6% of flights whose aircraft had under 60 minutes on the ground leave late, where the lookup table says 20.7%. How it was built, two real cases, and where it fails →
The airport's pulse
IST's rhythm: hourly departure/arrival banks, traffic by day of week and by month, a 3-airport comparison. Quota-free and complete, from ADS-B movements alone.
Side quest · ready →Route delay globe
The 20 highest delay-risk routes out of Istanbul, on a 3D globe — each colored by its real share of delayed flights. The data-driven, historical cousin of the THY globe.
Fleet & aircraft rotation
Track aircraft by tail number (icao24): which types fly, how many rotations a single plane makes per day, how tight the turnarounds are. Both concrete knowledge and the prediction model's strongest feature.
Side quest 1
The airport's pulse
From the 131,334-flight IST dataset: hourly/weekly/monthly traffic patterns and a 3-airport comparison. A snapshot — will refresh as the data grows.
Hourly average: departures vs. landings (Istanbul local time)
Each bar is the average number of flights in that hour, on a typical day (from 85 days of data — not a raw multi-day total). Hover a bar for the exact average.
3-airport comparison
Toggle airports on/off — the charts update accordingly.
Weekly average: which days are busiest
Each bar is the typical flight count for that day of the week (e.g. the average across every Sunday in the data).
Monthly average: May–July (per day)
Average flights per day WITHIN each month — not a total — so partial July (27 days) and June (27 days, a small collection gap) compare fairly against complete months.